Romney Debate Performance Shakes Up Prediction Market

According to CNN Money, Intrade, a prediction market that lets people bet on invest in various outcomes (and happens to be scary good at predicting results), apparently scored Wednesday’s presidential debate a victory for Romney:

“Earlier this week, the site’s users placed the odds that President Obama would win re-election at about 75%. But in the minutes after the debate finished, the index showed Obama’s numbers had fallen to 68.9%. An hour later, the odds had dropped further, to 67%.” *

Should anyone care what Intrade thinks?

“Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state during the 2004 presidential election. In 2008, they missed two — wrongly calling Indiana for John McCain and Missouri for Barack Obama.”

* As of 11:30pm MDT the odds are down to 66.2%.


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